Cog-Sync/.claude/commands/foresight.md

Use this skill for strategic foresight — connecting dots across domains and surfacing one high-value nudge. Trigger if the user says "foresight", "what should I be thinking about", "what am I missing", "strategic nudge", "connect the dots", or similar forward-looking synthesis requests.

This is NOT /reflect. Reflect = past-facing (mines interactions, fixes contradictions). Foresight = future-facing (scans broadly, projects trajectories, surfaces opportunities).

This is NOT /evolve. Evolve = system architecture. Foresight = life/work strategy.

Domain

Cross-domain strategic synthesis — personal, work, projects, health, family. The value is in the connections between domains.

Memory Files

Read broadly — this is a scan, not a focused lookup:

1. Read memory/domains.yml to discover all active domains
2. For each domain, read hot-memory.md and action-items.md (if they exist)
3. Also read:
   • memory/hot-memory.md (cross-domain strategic context)
   • memory/personal/entities.md (upcoming birthdays, relationships)
   • memory/personal/calendar.md (what's coming up)
   • memory/personal/health.md (health trajectory)
   • memory/cog-meta/briefing-bridge.md (housekeeping findings)
   • Recent observations across all domains (last 7 days)
   • Thread current-state sections — what narratives are actively unfolding?

Process

1. Cross-Domain Convergence Scan

Look for topics, people, or themes appearing in 2+ domains simultaneously. These are convergence points — where effort in one area compounds into another.

2. Velocity & Stall Detection

Scan action-items across all domains. Classify each active item:

• Accelerating — multiple updates in the last week, clear momentum. Signal: ride the wave, don't interrupt.
• Cruising — steady progress, on track. Signal: nothing to flag.
• Stalling — no movement in 2+ weeks despite not being deferred. Signal: ask why. Blocked? Lost priority?
• Dormant — domain-level silence (0 observations in 4+ weeks). Signal: conscious choice or drift?

Stalls and dormant domains are high-value nudge material — they represent things the user cares about but isn't acting on.

3. Timing Awareness

Read calendar and entities for upcoming events in the next 2-4 weeks. Look for timing windows — things that should start NOW to be ready later.

4. Pattern Projection

Read patterns and recent observations. Project forward: "If this continues for 2 more weeks, what happens?"

Scenario candidate detection: If a pattern projection reveals a genuine fork — two meaningfully different paths with real stakes and a closing decision window — flag it as a scenario candidate below the main nudge. A valid candidate needs: a fork (2+ paths), stakes (wrong choice has real cost), and time sensitivity (window closing). Don't flag routine decisions or hypotheticals with no deadline.

5. Write One Strategic Nudge

Synthesize into one nudge. Not a list. One thing.

The nudge must:

• Cite at least 2 source files
• Be something the user hasn't explicitly asked about
• Be actionable — not "think about X" but "do Y because of X and Z"
• Connect dots

Write to memory/cog-meta/foresight-nudge.md:

# Foresight Nudge
<!-- Auto-generated by strategic foresight. -->
<!-- Last updated: YYYY-MM-DD -->

## Signal
<What you noticed — the raw observation from 2+ domains>

## Insight
<Why it matters — the connection, timing, or trajectory that makes this worth flagging>

## Suggested Action
<One concrete thing to do — specific, actionable, grounded>

---
Sources: [[file1]], [[file2]], [[file3]]

## Scenario Candidate (optional)
<!-- Only include if pattern projection reveals a genuine fork worth simulating -->
Decision: <one-line framing>
Why now: <why the window is closing>
Domains: <affected domains>

Overwrite the file each run. One nudge per run.

Rules

1. Read-only — Foresight NEVER edits memory files. Writes ONLY to memory/cog-meta/foresight-nudge.md. If you spot a memory error, note it in the nudge's signal section and let reflect handle it.
2. One nudge, not a list — force prioritization. If everything is equally important, nothing is.
3. Evidence-based — every nudge cites at least 2 source files. No vibes.
4. Non-obvious — the nudge should surprise. If the user already knows and is acting on it, pick something else.
5. Forward-looking — avoid rehashing yesterday. Project into next week, next month.
6. Cross-domain preferred — nudges that connect personal + work are higher value than single-domain insights.

Anti-Patterns

• Don't repeat what briefing-bridge already says (stale items, birthday prep) — that's housekeeping's job
• Don't recommend "reflect on X" — be specific about what to DO
• Don't flag things the user has explicitly deferred — respect the deferral
• Don't flag things that are cruising — focus on convergences, stalls, and timing windows
• Don't write a mini-briefing — one insight, one action

Activation

Read broadly across all domains. Find the one thing worth saying.